Natural regeneration of non-native conifers beyond plantation boundaries represents an emerging and under-recognised threat to open habitats, including priority ecosystems such as heathland, blanket bog, and montane grassland.
Seed dispersal from mature plantations allows species such as Sitka Spruce and Lodgepole Pine to establish in surrounding landscapes, where they alter hydrology, outcompete native vegetation, and undermine costly habitat restoration investments.
Despite widespread anecdotal evidence of spread, there is currently no systematic assessment of the spatial extent or risk factors driving plantation escape across the UK.
This project will use nationally available LiDAR data to fill that evidence gap. By mapping conifer presence in randomly selected 1-km² cells around plantations and analysing how occurrence varies with distance, elevation, exposure, and plantation type, we will quantify invasion risk and identify vulnerable habitat types.
The findings will directly inform conservation policy and forest design planning, guiding where control efforts, buffer zones, or restoration defences are most needed.
The study will provide an evidence base to protect open landscapes from encroachment, supporting biodiversity targets, peatland carbon integrity, and the restoration aims of the Nature Recovery Network.